U.S. STRIKES ON IRAN: WHAT'S NEXT AFTER “MIDNIGHT HAMMER”?

On June 22^nd , the U.S. launched Operation “Midnight Hammer” against Iran. The strikes hit three nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.

For months now, negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program were at a dead-end. It all escalated on June 12^th when the IAEA sanctioned Iran for breaching its obligations. The country enriched uranium at an almost weapon-grade level. This is way over the limit for a civilian use. The next day, Israel launched strikes on Iran. The Israelis called for U.S. help to strike underground nuclear plants. Indeed, these kinds of sites require specific weapons. For days, President Trump made different statements. He first claimed that the U.S. wanted a diplomatic exit and had nothing to do with Israel’s attack. He then maintained a blur on whether the U.S. would strike or not. Following a series of opposite declarations and bluff, the American operation was launched after all.  

Let’s go over the operation and its possible outcomes.

What do we know about Operation “Midnight Hammer”?

The U.S. wanted to damage Iran’s nuclear plants and prevent the country from having “the bomb”.

The Pentagon shared some details. The mission involved 125 aircrafts:

• B-2 stealth bombers,

•  4^th and 5^th generation fighter,

• Tankers,

• ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance).

B-2 launched bunker-buster GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators. These are 13 tons bombs needed to penetrate underground sites. These bombs can dig deep into the ground before exploding. Israel does not have them, that’s why they needed the U.S.

The operation also involved one submarine that launched two dozen tomahawk missiles on key land infrastructures in Isfahan.

According to the U.S. Defense Department, the mission was a success and set back Iran’s nuclear plans for years.

Iran said the strikes against international law. It also announced that the uranium had been moved from the sites in anticipation. Whether this statement is true or not remains unknown. It also warned of retaliation and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. The Prime Minister travelled to Moscow to discuss with President Putin.  

China and Russia are against U.S. strikes and said they were worsening the conflict. Still, it’s unlikely that they will support Iran militarily. Russia could even benefit from a rise in oil prices and the world’s attention being driven away from Ukraine.

The global community also asks the strikes to stop and a return to the negotiations.

There were also protests in Iran and worldwide against the strikes. Even within the U.S. and the Republican party, some disagree with the strikes. After decades of wars in the Middle East, and the campaign promise to end that, some are against this decision.

What could happen next?

Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz

In response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear program, the Iranian Parliament voted to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most strategic chokepoint.

The strait is critical as about 20% of global oil and 1/3 of LNG passes through each day. Many countries depend on it. Gulf oil is 75% of China’s oil supply. About 60% of its exports to Europe and Africa pass through Dubai’s port. The European Union also counts on oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf, especially since the boycott of Russian’s resources.

This shut down could cause a raise in oil and gas prices, freight rates and disturbances in global shipping. However, it is unlikely that the strait will remain closed for long. Indeed, Iran also needs to export its oil, especially to China which represents 90% of its exports. Without oil revenues, the pursuit of a war and the survival of the regime would be compromised. Plus, closing the strait would impact all Gulf countries and foreign countries dependent on Gulf resources. This would expose Iran to the creation of a broader coalition against it.  

Attacks on U.S. bases

Iran threatened to attack U.S bases after Israel’s strikes. Since then, 40,000 American soldiers deployed in the Middle East are possible targets.

While it is possible that Iran could resort to its traditional grey-zone tactics to hurt the U.S. in retaliation, it is unlikely that it will undergo massive and continuous attacks. Firstly, Iran proxies are silent since the beginning of the conflict. They are weakened or preserving their own interests. Secondly, attacks on its bases would probably drive the U.S. to intervene more intensely in Iran. It is unsure if Iran still has the military capacity to face that. This could ultimately lead to a regime fall.

Overthrown regime

The U.S. said that the strikes were only to prevent Iran from getting the bomb. They do not consider to be at war with Iran and encourage negotiations. But once again, President Trump remains evasive on his intentions, posting on social media about regime change.

It is unclear if the U.S. intentions for Iran are thought through and fully planned. A regime change would indeed be a relief for the population. But aren’t we just replicating scenarios all over again? Using military forces to take down a regime, without having a framed and secured transition plan. This happened in Iraq and Libya. Both ended up being failed states with no real governments and security forces. These were breeding grounds for terrorist groups. Let’s not forget that Taliban and ISIS are close by. If the same scenario happened, this might lead to international war in the region. It would involve financial and human costs, but also massive immigration waves further destabilizing the region and Western societies.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy