Trump’s Peace Deals: Could Taiwan Be Next In Line?

While Trump tries to pile up peace deals, many worry Taiwan’s fate will be brokered for business. It’s also said that the U.S. policy might embolden China to make a move on Taiwan. China also stated its lands will be reunited, even by force.

Let’s look at what is at stake for Taiwan.  

Origins of the tensions

Taiwan was once occupied by Portuguese, Spanish and Dutch. China then took hold of the island and brought its population. It was then ceded to Japan at the end of the 19^Th century. After WWII, the UN gave Taiwan back to China.

China and Taiwan then parted when the first became communist. With U.S. support Taiwan developed a liberal economy and industries.

Since then, Taiwan has its own government, currency, flag, and military forces. But it never declared its independence. Most of the population there wants to keep a status quo and keep their autonomy. They identify as Taiwanese and not Chinese.  

China sees Taiwan as its 23^rd province. It aims at reuniting its territory one day, even if it must be by force. It wants to reproduce what happened with Hong Kong or Macao. It stands against any recognition of Taiwan as a state.

Military tensions

The past 15 years, military pressure and threats from China increased. These include:

• Ballistic missiles along the Taiwan Strait,

• Threats to invade,

• Many military drills.

Chinese air force often enters Taiwan’s airspace. As a response, the U.S. reinforced their military presence in the region. China escalated with shows of force. It proved its capacity to create a blockade or invade.

Geopolitical stakes

Taiwan is at the center of the islands line blocking access to the area between Japan and the Philippines.

Taiwan is also a major player in the global semiconductor supply chain. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) produces 90% of the world’s most advanced chips. It controls over 50% of global foundry revenue.

The company’s clients include:

• Apple,

• NVIDIA,

• AMD,

• Qualcomm.

This industry plays a key role in the relations between China, Taiwan and the U.S. It is also crucial for Taiwan’s security. Countries are deterred from attacking Taiwan because of its vital role in the global tech industry. Even China is heavily reliant on Taiwan for its chips. China is trying to build its own chips industry but is still far behind TSMC. A disruption would paralyze global industries building smartphones, cars, AI, and defense systems.

Global positions on Taiwan

Taiwan was excluded from the UN in the 70’s and the seat was given to China.

Most countries do not formally recognize Taiwan as a state. But many maintain strong unofficial ties with it. These relations are shaped by economy and politics.

The U.S. officially follow the One-China policy. They do not recognize Taiwan as an independent entity.  But they support it through:

• Arms sales,

• High-level political visits,

• Military cooperation,

• Taiwan Relations Act (1979) that requires the U.S. to help Taiwan defend itself.

The U.S. is Taiwan’s most crucial security partner and second-largest trading partner.

No EU country recognizes Taiwan. But ties are growing with:

• France,

• Germany,

• the Netherlands,

• the Czech Republic,

• Lithuania.

Lithuania even opened an embassy using “Taiwan” in the name. This sparked a crisis with China.

The EU parliament passed several pro-Taiwan decisions in the recent years.

Japan also supports Taiwan without recognizing it. It supports its participation to organizations. It also declared their security are closely linked. Tokyo is growing concerns over China’s aggressions in the Taiwan Strait.

Can Taiwan still rely on the U.S.?

Taiwan’s relations with the U.S. are vital for its security. Its defense is highly dependent on the U.S.

But Trump’s foreign policy raises concerns in Taiwan. During his campaign Trump said Taiwan stole the American chip industry. Like Ukraine, he also stated that Taiwan must pay for its own protection. All this while maintaining a softer tone with China.

Plus, Trump’s transactional and unilateral foreign policy increase these concerns. The way he brokers peace deals for business raises questions on Taiwan’s fate. If he seals a deal favoring Russia over Ukraine, China might be emboldened to make a move on Taiwan.

It should also be reminded that the Taiwan Relations Act does not provide a firm and solid security guarantee. The U.S. commitment to directly defend Taiwan is up to the current occupant of the White House. The U.S. might as well only decide to supply weapons and not get further involved.

But Trump’s policy and speech on Taiwan should be put into perspective. Despite his unpredictability, he is following the American approach of non-commitment to Taiwan. He maintains a strategic ambiguity that other American presidents also adopted. As long as Taiwan remains the main semiconductor producer, it will be in the U.S. interests to keep the island out of China’s power. Even more since TSMC invested billions on a plant in Arizona.

Possible scenarios?

Most likely: status quo. Taiwan stays autonomous but under pressure from China.

Most unlikely: independence. This would demand huge political shifts in China.

Unlikely: reunite. This would be the most favorable solution for China. But Taiwan stands fiercely against it.  

Unlikely soon: invasion. An invasion by China would be a risky move and could have devastating consequences. It could:

• Draw in the U.S. and allies,

• Disrupt global trade and tech supply chains,

• Cause severe economic fallout across the region and globally.  

While this scenario is unlikely in the short-term, it should not be ruled out. There is a growing consensus that China will try to take Taiwan in the coming years. The U.S. stance on Ukraine and Taiwan will probably play a key role in China’s actions in the future.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy