Trump’s Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal

Trump hosted the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a peace deal. He also signed bilateral deals with each country. This aimed at ending decades of conflict between these former Soviet republics. It also seeks has economic partnerships.

Here are some insights on the conflict, the competition in the region and the terms of these deals.

Origins of the conflict

Armenia and Azerbaijan were both part of the USSR. Due to the “divide and rule” policy some parts of one republic were given over to other. In this case it was the Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhichevan region.

The USSR stated that Nagorno-Karabakh was a part of Azerbaijan. But 95% the population there was Armenian. The region declared its independence when the USSR collapsed. A war began with Azerbaijan. But Armenia won and occupied some territories in Azerbaijan.

In 2020, Azerbaijan regained territory during a 6-week war. It was backed by Turkey. It launched a rapid military operation 3 years later. Since then, it occupies the region. The Armenian population fled to Armenia and Azerbaijan gained full control.

Nakhichevan was claimed by both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Soviets wanted to give it to Armenia in exchange of Nagorno-Karabakh. But Turkey put pressure to have a border with Azerbaijan and the USSR agreed. Since then, Nakhichevan is part of Azerbaijan.  They are separated by a 20-mile patch of Armenian territory. Armenia does not claim the region. But it is against a route linking Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan on its territory.

Countries source of competing regional influences

Russia used to have great influence in the region. The country played a key role in Armenia’s security. But its attention and resources have been focused on Ukraine. Indeed, Russia failed to intervene during Azerbaijan’s operations. Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh were withdrawn last year. This led to mistrust from Armenians. They now shift toward the EU, France, and U.S. for support. The peace deal being negotiated and signed without Russia marks its declining influence in the region.

There is also a competition going on between Turkey and Iran. Turkey backs up Azerbaijan. It is seeking greater influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. They have been trying to develop a route linking Baku to Kars. But Armenia refused its passage through the Zangezur corridor.  

Iran is a key support for Armenia. It feels threatened by the alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan. It stands against the route through the Zangezur Corridor that should border the north of the country. This corridor would cut Iran from its key land bridge to the South Caucasus. Iran also swaps gas for electricity with Armenia.  

The EU increased its support to Armenia since the military operation. But it also relies on Azerbaijan energy exports.

Terms of deal

The deal brokered by Trump includes a new trade and transit corridor. It will be named Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). It will link Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan. This project is expected to end the conflict and develop key transport corridors in the region. This also aims at boosting economic ties between the two countries. The corridor is expected to include a rail line, oil and gas lines, and fiber optic lines. It would allow for the movement of goods and boost trades. The U.S. will have exclusive developments rights.

The U.S. will also benefit from bilateral deals. The White House spokeswoman said these deals would concern:

• Energy,

• Technology,

• Economic cooperation,

• Border security,

• Infrastructure,

• Trade. 

Resources in Armenia and Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan is one of the most resource-rich countries in the region. It owns large reserves of oil and gas. There are major oil reserves in the Caspian Sea and gas reserves are mostly in the Shah Deniz field. The country is a key supplier of Europe. The EU relies on it since the boycotts on Russian resources. Azerbaijan also owns minerals. These include iron ore, copper, gold, molybdenum, and aluminum.

The country’s economy relies on its resources. It gives Baku some political leverages. But it’s also a key factor for its success in the latest conflicts. It allowed the country to fund its military modernization. This gave an advantage over Armenia.

Armenia on the other hand suffers from economic struggles. It is landlocked by blockades from Turkey and Azerbaijan. It relies on foreign aid and money from the diaspora. The country lacks fossil fuel resources. It depends on Russia and Iran for energy supplies.

But Armenia has a growing IT sector and mineral wealth. The country mostly exports copper and is a major producer of molybdenum. Its soil also hosts:

• Gold,

• Stones used in construction (basalt, tuff, granite),

• Other metals (zinc, lead, silvers).

For the U.S. the deal is a great partnership that will boost the country’s economy. But the Armenians in the U.S. sees it differently. They say it rewards Azerbaijan’s aggression and denies justice for their people.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

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