The Geopolitics of Western Sahara

The case of Western Sahara is one of the most enduring and tough territorial disputes in Africa. The region is claimed by Morocco as one of its provinces. But the indigenous Sahrawi movement seeks independence. It is led by the Front Polisario. Algeria supports it, which for decades caused tensions with Morocco.

Let’s dig into this large desert region on the northwest coast of Africa.

Background

For many years, Western Sahara was a Spanish colony. Spain ruled it from the late 1800s until 1975. During this time, the local people had little power. They wanted independence and began to form groups to fight for their land. One of the main groups was called the Polisario Front. It was made up of Sahrawis who wanted Western Sahara to become its own country.

In 1975, Spain left Western Sahara. But instead of becoming free, the land was claimed by two neighboring countries: Morocco and Mauritania. The Sahrawis did not agree, and fighting began. The Polisario Front declared the area to be the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). They wanted to run their own government.

Soon after, Mauritania gave up its claim. But Morocco did not. It took control of most of the region. The fighting continued for many years. Thousands of Sahrawis fled to refugee camps in nearby Algeria. Many still live there today. These camps have schools, hospitals, and small markets, but life is hard. The people there continue to hope they can one day return home.

A Struggle for Peace

In 1991, the UN helped bring a ceasefire between Morocco and the Polisario Front. A plan was made to hold a referendum. The aim was for the people to decide if they wanted to be part of Morocco or have their own country. But the vote never happened because the two sides cannot agree on who should be allowed to vote.

Today, the region is still divided. Morocco controls most of the land and calls it its “Southern Provinces.” The Polisario Front controls the rest, mostly desert areas to the east. A large sand wall, known as the “berm,” separates the two sides. It is protected by soldiers and covered with land mines. The UN still sends peacekeepers to make sure the fighting does not start again.

Geopolitical stakes

There are many stakes in the conflict.

Resources. The region is rich in phosphates (via the Bou Craa mine). It also has an Atlantic coastline. This is useful for fishery and offshore oil and gas.  For Morocco the land is strategic. Its control gives access to resources and a longer coastline. It grants more geopolitical leverage. 

Alliances and rivalries. The conflict is not simply between Morocco and the Sahrawis.  Algeria is also a key player. It backs the Polisario Front and hosts the Sahrawi refugee camps in Tindouf. Morocco’s claim brings a rivalry with Algeria. The latter sees the conflict as tied to its own regional position and to principles of self-determination. The wider geopolitics include EU states and the UN. But also, strategic maneuvers by powers seeking access to the Sahel and African coastlines. 

Global recognition. Morocco gained support for its autonomy plan. The UN recently agreed that this plan is the main reference point in the search for a solution to this conflict. But, the UN position also remains firm. The region is a “non-self-governing territory”. The Sahrawi people have a right to decide what they want for the region.

Prospective outcomes

The future of the region is still uncertain. Some states support Morocco’s claim. Others support the Sahrawis’ right to self-rule. Many peace talks have taken place. But no final solution has been reached. The UN continues to work for a fair and peaceful answer.

There could be different outcomes to this matter.

Autonomy. This could be possible given Morocco’s diplomatic successes on its autonomy plan. Western Sahara would still be part of Morocco. But it will be granted local institutions with huge powers.

Renewed conflict or escalation. If the Polisario Front and Algeria conclude that diplomacy is failing, they may ramp up armed struggle. This could cause escalation.

Global settlement for resources. Investors and powers may push for a settlement tied to economic integration (ports, energy projects, fisheries). It would lead to Morocco’s control but under global frameworks.

Frozen status quo: The most likely short-term outcome. Morocco holds most territory and the Sahrawis maintain the claim. The UN mission remains stalled.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

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