SYRIA - FROM AL QAEDA TO GOVERNMENT: HOW ARE THE NEW LEADERS HANDLING CHALLENGES?

Recently Syria made its first bank transfer via SWIFT since the war. Thanks to eased sanctions, the country can begin its long road to reconstruction. But this week’s suicide bombing at a Damascus church reminds that the country is far from being stable. The new government still has many issues to tackle.

Reminder of how we got here.

The Assads ruled over Syria for 54 years. Under Bashar, human rights were not respected. In 2011, in the wake of the Arab Spring, protests rose in Syria. They were severely repressed by the government, with Iran’s help. This led to more than ten years of civil war. Terrorists tried to profit from the chaos. ISIS declared a caliphate across Syria and Iraq. They were defeated by Kurdish fighters, supported by an international coalition.

The UN often accused the regime of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Violations included:

• Tortures,

• Executions,

• Enforced disappearances,

• Population bombings,

• Use of chemical weapons on the population,

• Famine and blockade,

• Sexual violence,

• Population displacement,

• Censure,

• Arbitrary arrests.

In spite of his brutal regime, many regions escaped Bashar’s control. One armed group, Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) even created a government near Idlib. HTS and other rebels launched an offensive on the regime. It only took them ten days to walk on Damascus. Last December, Bashar escaped and fled to Russia. HTS announced a transitional government.

What is HTS? Who is the Syrian president, Ahmed Al Charaa?

Al Charaa comes from a modern bourgeois family. When the war began in Iraq, he joined Al Qaeda.  In 2011, he returned to Syria and founded Jabhat Al Nusra. Few years later, he parted from Al Qaeda and created Hayat Tahrir Al Sham. He shifted from a radical Islamic view to a moderate one. Since then, HTS has been trying to stand out as a credible political entity with good intentions.

HTS goal isn’t jihad anymore but rebuilding Syria. In 2017, HTS founded the Syrian Salvation Government in Idlib. It ended up being more efficient than the real government. HTS gained legitimacy and popular support.

What are the challenges for Syria?

Security challenges

Syria remains a patchwork of ethnical differences, armed forces, and allegiances. Since it took over the power, HTS is struggling to reach unity in the country. There has already been an Alawite uprising that led to several killings and clashed. This raised concern about the government’s ability to protect minorities.   

While several rebel groups dissolved and integrated the new Syrian army, there are still armed groups around the country. Plus, there is no guarantee that the rebels won’t regroup again if they are dissatisfied or see an opportunity to take the lead.

There is also the threat of ISIS regrouping. More than two thousand fighters are still active in Syria and Iraq. They are increasing their attacks since HTS took over, as shown by the latest suicide-bombing in a church. They will probably try to worsen ethnic cleavage. Indeed, ISIS thrives on instability and chaos. A source of concern is also the prisoner camps in northern Syria. There are nine thousand ISIS fighters in twenty prisons and thirty-eight thousand women and children to deal with.

On top of that, there is also the destabilization caused by Israel. Tsahal occupies a small part of southern Syria. There were also strikes on military assets and chemical plants. Israel is scared that HTS jihadi past will turn against it. This could create resentment within the population if the government doesn’t react.

Social challenges

On a social level, living conditions in Syria are very poor. Most of the country is destroyed. Key public buildings like schools and hospitals need to be rebuilt. A social unity must be restored to avoid another civilian war.

If refugees return, tensions over land could erupt between returnees and current occupants.

Also, national institutions must be fixed. They must protect human rights and minorities rights.

But there is also a risk that HTS hardliners will reject moderation and join ISIS or Al Qaeda.

Economic challenges

Syria’s economy is in very bad shape. Its GDP fell from $67.5 billion (2011) to $9.65 billion (2025). There is a food crisis and a 90% poverty rate. Again, major changes must be undergone:

• Tackle corruption,

• More transparency for Syria’s Central bank,

• Fight money laundering and financing of terrorism,

• Respect human rights to gain trust.

If Syria follow these steps, it may get more sanctions removed. The U.S. has lifted some, but still most U.S. products cannot be exported to Syria. This also includes non-U.S. products containing more than ten percent U.S. components. The E.U. and U.K. also removed most sanctions.

But most investors are wary. They don’t want to invest in a country with sanctions, high security risks and former jihadists in power. Still, Gulf investors agreed to inject funds to build infrastructures and communication networks.  

Diplomatic challenges

Relations were created with Riyad, Doha, and Abu Dhabi. While they were distrustful at first, they saw the opportunity to bring Syria back to Sunni.  They paid Syria’s arrears to the World Bank. Qatar will contribute to public officials’ wages.

HTS agrees to Russia keeping its bases in Syria if there are some benefits to it. These bases are strategic. They allow Russia to project its power in the region, Mediterranean Sea and Africa. The relations might be tough since Russia was an ally and welcomed Bashar.  

Concerning Israel, Al Charaa ensured that Syria was not a threat. This explains his neutrality with what’s going on in the region. Indeed, Syria didn’t condemn the strikes on Iran, even though they violate its airspace. This is also due to the fact that Iran supported Bashar and helped in the repressions.

Al Charaa also remains silent on Israel’s occupation in southern Syria. However, Israel plans to occupy the region permanently. They also want no HTS presence and no military there. This is a breach of sovereignty that Al Charaa will have to deal with to maintain popular support.

HTS will have to prove its good intentions. They must respect human rights and protect minorities. If they want to be removed from the terrorist list and sanctions to be lifted fully, they must convince of their legitimacy.

 Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy