Saudi Arabia – Pakistan Mutual Defense Deal

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a defense deal. Saudi Arabia is a key player in the Islamic world. Pakistan is the only Muslim state to own nuclear weapons. This deal might set a new order in global geopolitics.  

Let’s dig into the context and outcomes of this deal.

Context

The two countries have a long relation. They are linked by shared religious, cultural, and strategic interest. They created a strong alliance. It is built on mutual support in defense, economics, and regional politics. Saudi Arabia often helped its ally on an economic level. Pakistan’s officers trained Saudi forces. It was also willing to defend holy sites in like Mecca and Medina.

This deal was signed a week after Israel’s strike on Hamas officials in Qatar. Israel already made strikes on:

• Qatar,

• Iran,

• Lebanon,

• Yemen,

• Syria.

This happened without further reactions by the U.S. Some countries are then trying to get a protective nuclear umbrella. Gulf states fear they cannot rely on the U.S. anymore. This is due to the U.S. shift toward the Indo-Pacific and its support to Israel.

Terms of the deal

The main term of the deal is the joint response clause implied by mutual defense. It is like NATO’s Article 5. Under this deal, any attack against one state will be treated as an attack against both. The term around nuclear deterrence stays blurry. But Pakistan could extend its nuclear umbrella. This would then be a big shift in regional security dynamics.

The deal also holds other clauses. Their alliance will be extended. It will include more joint exercises and intel sharing. They will share the production of some miliary equipment. There should also be transfers of technology. The goal is to counter threats, terrorism, and cross-border uprisings.

But the transfer of technology brings questions. With the blur on nuclear, there are worries about proliferation. Pakistan is one of the four states that didn’t sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. This treaty aims to limit the spread of nuclear arms and weapons technology. States that own nuclear arms agree to share only pacific nuclear technology. They cannot transfer nuclear weapons or explosive devices. They also cannot help any non-nuclear states acquire a nuclear bomb. But Pakistan is then not bound to follow that since it did not sign the treaty. Plus, it already helped North Korea develop a bomb. Saudi Arabia on the other hand signed the treaty. But it was suspected of trying to reach the weapon capacity when it launched it civilian program.

But for now, it is unlikely that the transfer of technology involves nuclear. Pakistan will most likely keep its monopole.

The deal goes beyond defense. Both countries step up their alliance in different sectors. These include:

• economy,

• trade,

•  investment,

• public sector auditing,

• media and cultural exchanges.

What’s to expect?

It is the first time Saudi Arabia makes a military pact with a nuclear-armed country. Plus, Pakistan says other countries want to reach a similar deal. Other Islamic states might join the coalition. This would make Pakistan a security guarantor in the Gulf. It comes with strategic recognition and regional influence. It will also boost the country’s economy. It obviously is a win for Pakistan. But it also is a win for Saudi Arabia and potential other states. They could benefit from a nuclear umbrella.

But this deal raises concerns on how other states perceive threats and how they might respond. Historically, Saudi relations with Israel and Iran have been very difficult. These latter might see this deal as a game changer in their approach towards the country.

India also checks this deal closely. Although its relations with the Gulf states improved over the years, it is a great source of concern. India and Pakistan always had tensed relations. They often clashed and made war over Kashmir. New Delhi now worries that this deal will drag these states into Pakistan’s side in case of another conflict.

This is even harder on India due to its current relations. Ties with the U.S. took a hit when Trump imposed one the world’s highest tariff rate on New Delhi for buying Russian oil. Its relations with China are very difficult. In the meantime, China and Pakistan are strengthening their relations. Plus, it can hardly rely on Russia. Moscow is completely focused on its war in Ukraine.

This deal might also undermine the U.S. influence in the region. This would bring great satisfaction to China which is a close ally to both countries. With Trump pushing states to build their own defense instead of relying on the U.S., this deal could have been welcome. But the nuclear part raise concerns about regional stability, proliferation, and strategic ambiguity. With it comes a risk of escalation. Ambiguity around nuclear umbrellas can deter. But it also can provoke.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy