Putin Invited To Alaska For U.S.-Russia Summit

The summit between Trump and Putin is to be held tomorrow in Alaska. This is the first meeting of Putin with a G7 leader since his invasion in Ukraine. The primary goal is to discuss options for a lasting peace in Ukraine. Trump floated the idea of land swaps. This raised strong opposition from Ukraine and the EU.

But Trump reminded that this is just a “feel-out meeting” with no concrete deal at stakes. Trump wants to sound out Russia’s stance on the war. He will then inform Ukraine and the EU if the war will pursue or if a peace deal can be discussed. But the lack of advisers and Ukraine in the room raises concerns. Many worry that Putin could play Trump into agreeing to a peace deal benefiting Russia. So, what’s to expect from this meeting?

Recent developments in the war

Russian forces made their most important battlefield advances in months. They intensified the rhythm and launched a surprise attack in the Donetsk region. They also increased their infiltrations. Russia gained about 6 miles of Ukrainian territory in a few days. Ukraine is trying to repel these incursions but lacks resources on the battlefield. It sent reserves to reinforce the front. 

Putin is most likely trying to gain leverage before the meeting. Russia’s demands remain the same. They include:

• Full withdrawal of Ukraine’s forces from Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson,

• International recognition of these territories,

• Ukraine renouncing NATO membership.

These demands are firmly rejected by Ukraine.

Reactions

Ukraine and the EU call for a ceasefire before any peace talks be held. They also state that any peace talks without Ukraine are unacceptable. Indeed, Zelensky is missing from this meeting. There were only virtual talks with him, European leaders, and Trump ahead of the summit. Zelensky stated that Ukraine will not cede territory to Russia that could be used to launch a new attack. Plus, changing the borders would require amending the constitution via a referendum. But it is unlikely that Ukrainians will fold to such a decision.

The EU had hope that Trump got tired of being fooled by Putin and toughened his position toward Russia. Indeed, Trump had given a deadline for the Russian leaders to agree to a ceasefire or face economic punishment. But on the day of that deadline, Trump invited Putin for a one-on-one meeting instead. The EU’s hopes then vanished.

Yet the talks ahead of the summit seem positive. The French president stated that there had not been in-depth talks on land swaps. German chancellor said Trump shared the EU views that more pressure should be applied on Russia if the meeting did not go well. But will these positions be kept during the meeting?

Can Putin really be trusted?

Putin has fooled Trump on few occasions. During Trump’s first term, Putin managed to convince him that Russia did not interfere in the U.S. elections. Trump got out of the Helsinki meeting dazzled by Putin.  

In the case of the war in Ukraine, Putin often pretended to be open to peace talks but pursued attacks. Plus, the precedent in Crimea makes it hard to believe that Putin will give up in the long-term. It is more likely that another invasion will be attempted later.

Putin will also probably try to play Trump into imposing a peace deal on Ukraine that will bring maximum benefit to Russia. Trump already threatened to cut arms supply and evoked land swaps. Putin might surf on these stances and turn the situation in his favor. He will most likely try to push Trump to impose a done deal on Ukraine. Such as deal could be to accept land swaps in exchange of peace or be on their own in the war without arms supply. He could play on Trump’s urge to exploit rare-earth elements in Ukraine to avoid the dependence on China. The sooner peace comes back in Ukraine and the sooner the U.S. can exploit minerals under the minerals deal.  

What’s at stake?

Trump seems to believe that even a bad deal could be better than nothing. Land swaps would be a solution to end the bloodshed going on in Ukraine. But this would be disastrous for Ukraine, the EU and U.S. security. It might comfort Putin to go further in Ukraine or elsewhere. This could also create a precedent for other conflicts like China and Taiwan.

A land swap could give Russia the coveted Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Moscow already took Crimea a decade ago with impunity. If history repeats itself, how can Ukraine and the global community be certain Russia will not go for another occupation in the future?  

This meeting in the U.S. also holds symbolic impacts. For one, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin. Although the ICC has no jurisdiction on the U.S., Putin being welcomed on American soil is perceived as an affront to justice by U.S. allies. There is also symbolism in the fact that the meeting is held in Alaska. The state was a Russian territory before being sold to the U.S. in a real estate deal.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy