North Korea's Nuclear Power

Background

North Korea’s nuclear program started in the 50’s. The USSR helped the country for peaceful nuclear energy. But in the 80’s the program turned into weapon developments. North Korea then withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003.

Since, the country conducted several nuclear tests over the years.

Status of the program

North Korea does not have a civilian nuclear program. It has research reactors and infrastructures for nuclear development. But these are military focused. Unlike Iran, North Korea never pretended to seek a civilian program. It has been explicit for a long time now that the regime only seeks nuclear weapons.

North Korea boosted its nuclear power with Russia’s help. It revealed tactical nuclear warheads and advanced missile systems. Estimates suggest it has enough fissile material for up to 60 warheads.

In terms of missiles, North Korea owns short and medium range missiles. They are capable of striking South Korea and Japan. Last year, the country tested its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) Hwasong-type. This long-range missile can reach the U.S. The next generation, Hwasong-20, was revealed early September. This indicates further enhancement.  

The country is also developing its first nuclear-powered submarine. This type of submarine does not carry nuclear weapons. But this technology allows to improve stealth and range. It can stay submerged much longer without the need to surface to refuel.

International concerns

Japan is a frequent target of the missile tests. Japan and North Korea have a hostile relation due to historical grievances. Korea was annexed by Japan in the 20^th century. Plus, in the late 20^th century, North Korean agents kidnapped Japanese citizens. The missile tests worsened their relations.

North and South Korea are still technically at war since 1953. There has been no peace treaty, only an armistice. Their relation swing between attempts to soften foreign policies and hardline deterrence.

The program also impacts the U.S. foreign policy and posture in the region. From North Korea’s point of view, the U.S. is the main adversary and security threat. The U.S. keeps troops in South Korea. They also have alliances across the region. Trump’s administration engaged in talks on the nuclear program but without any lasting deal.

The UN, US and their allies imposed sanctions on North Korea. These sanctions target arms, energy, and finance.

But despite these pressures, North Korea continues to pursue nuclear deterrence. It is a core part of its national defense strategy. The country can also benefit from few supports.

China is North Korea’s main economic and political lifeline. It offers diplomatic cover in the UN and tries to maintain the regime. A regime fall could lead to refugee flows and U.S. troops near its borders. This is something China does not want. But North Korea’s provocations deeply annoys China.

The relation with Russia also deepened since the war in Ukraine. The two countries are both under sanctions. They trade together and align against the West. North Korea even provided its support to Russia by sending troops to fight in Ukraine.

What’s at stake for the regime?

Regime survival. For North Korea, the goal is not the nuclear program itself but the guarantee of survival it brings. Its leaders want the regime to survive. But they fear that without the bomb, they might get the same fate as others before. They believe that nuclear weapons are an insurance against forced regime change like in Iraq of Libya. It is also an insurance against South Korea’s superior conventional forces.

Political and military leverage. Its nuclear program elevates North Korea’s global status. It gives the country bargaining chips in negotiations. It can act on the program in return for aid, sanctions relief or security guarantees. This is a strategy often played by North Korea. They repeat the same cycle. They provoke, then negotiate and gain concessions. Then they break deals, and the cycles starts again.

Legacy and legitimacy. The program is tied to the Kim family’s legitimacy. It is part of a national speech on resistance, independence, and strength. It supports the idea that North Korea is strong despite its isolation. The regime depicts itself as the one who made that image of Korea possible. It nourishes the cult of personality of present and past leaders of the country.

 Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy