NATO vs. Russian drones

Recent events

The past two months, there has been several incursions in NATO’s airspace by Russia’s drones.

Lithuania had drones crossing into its airspace. Plus, one drone from Belarus that carried explosives crashed in a training area.

Latvia said a drone that entered from Belarus crashed east of the country.

About 19 drones entered Poland’s airspace during a large-scale attack on Ukraine. Polish and NATO jets scrambled and at least 3 drones were shot down.

A drone was tracked for nearly an hour over the east of Romania.

These incursions raise worries over repeated airspace breaches by Russia. Poland asked to discuss the Article 4 of the NATO Treaty. This happens when a member believes its security is at risk. Some members also asked for more support in air defense systems. They want to better detect, track, and engage small low-flying drones.

In return, NATO increased its air policing and defense posture along its east flank. The operation “Eastern Sentry” was launched to reinforce readiness. It coordinates defense against further airspace breaches. The aim is deterrence and defense. NATO must show readiness. It must also make it harder for future breaches and protect Allied airspace. This involves:

• Fighter jets to improve air policing and respond to incursions,

• Reinforced ground-based air defense systems,

• Advanced detection, tracking and counter-drone capabilities,

• Poland allows the deployment of allied troops on its soil.

This aims to signal that the breach of airspaces will not just meet diplomatic protests. But it will also lead to military readiness.

Challenges and concerns

There are many risks and challenges coming with this situation.

There are resources and financial concerns related to these types of breaches. Many air defense assets were sent to Ukraine and stocks are not illimited. Plus, there is a high cost associated with the engagement. Air defense missiles, from missile systems or jets, are very expensive. Using these missiles against cheap drones is not sustainable. Plus, if “Eastern Sentry” ends up being a rotational standing mission the cost is going to be high.

Also, many systems are not suited for small, low-flying drones. Plus, even advanced systems can be overwhelmed by cheap drone swarms in case of a saturation attack.  

There is a risk of escalation. These breaches are not isolated incidents anymore. This suggests either deliberate provocation, poor control over drone paths, or probably both. Russia might be testing NATO’s air defense systems. It might also be weighing the extent of the U.S. reaction to these moves and whether Trump will further support NATO and Europe or not.

But breaches by drones also comes with ambiguity. Are they deliberate or accidental? To decide when to shoot and how to respond without turning into broader conflict is delicate. There is a sort of blur around the legal framework and the proportionality of responses. These breaches are a violation of these countries’ airspaces. But it is not clear yet if they should be treated as attacks or solely violations of airspaces. These discussions will drive the response. In case of attack all NATO nations should be involved under Article 5. It is the core of NATO’s mutual defense principle. Under Article 5, an armed attack against one or more NATO nations is seen as an attack against all of them. If such an attack occurs, each member agrees to take actions as deemed necessary. This includes the use of armed forces. They are not required to go to war. But they are obligated to respond in some way.

NATO’s defense system in Europe

Here is an overview of NATO’s defense in Europe.

Air defense. The NATO Integrated Air and Missile Defense System (NATIMANDS) is the backbone of NATO’s defense of European airspace. It coordinates radars, aircrafts, missile systems and command centers across allied countries. These assets are operated through the NATO Combined Air Operations Centers based in Spain and Germany.

Surveillance and early warning. NATO owns a fleet of AWACS aircrafts based in Germany. These are airborne warning and control systems. They can monitor airspace up to 400 km. They cover most of eastern Europe. NATO and national radar stations are also used across the Baltics, Balkans, and Black Sea.  

Ballistic missile defense. Romania and Poland host a site with the Aegis Ashore System. This is a land-based version of the U.S. Navy Aegis missile system. It is designed to shoot down intermediate-range missiles. These assets are run by an air command center in Germany. These means are widely viewed as a counter to Russian missile threat. 

Forward presence and troops deployment. There are battlegroups in the Baltic states and Poland. Their aim is to guarantee a NATO response in case of aggression. There are also U.S. troops deployed in Europe (Germany, Spain, Poland, Romania).

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy