Moldova: torn between EU and Russia

Last month in Moldova, the pro-Russian party lost the elections. Voter gave the EU party the majority. This happened despite Russia ‘s influence to sway the elections.  

But the state remains at the crossroads of integration to the West and influence from Russia. Let’s dig into Moldova’s tough position in Europe.

A bit of History

Moldova is a state bordered by Romania and Ukraine. Its population counts less than 3 million people.

Moldova used to be a Soviet Republic within the USSR. It declared its independence with the USSR’s fall in the early 90’s.

Moldova now has a candidate status to join the EU. The head of state also suggested to amend the constitution. This aims to end its military neutrality in favor of a closer alliance with NATO.

Current situation

Moldova is a divided state. There are pro-EU forces and pro-Russia forces. Pro-EU forces want to join the EU And NATO. But pro-Russians favor ties with Moscow. State power often shifts between these factions.

The country is also one of the poorest in Europe. Its GDP per capita is below the EU average. It relies heavily on remittances from its people abroad. It has underdeveloped infrastructures, high unemployment, and limited foreign investment. It also faces a demographic crisis. Its population is aging and there is a low birth rate. Youth and skilled workers are emigrating. Public trust in institutions took a hit because of corruption. There have been major scandals around that. In 2014, 1/8 of the country’s GDP was stolen from banks.

Challenges

Moldova faces many security and economic challenges.

On top of these stands Transnistria. Transnistria is a region in East Moldova, at the border with Ukraine. It declared its independence in 1990. This happened even before the USSR fell apart. A short but bloody conflict broke out between Moldovan forces and Transnistrian separatists. The latter were backed by Russia. After a ceasefire was brokered, the region parted from Moldova. It became a self-declared republic. It has its own government, military, police, currency, and flag. But it was never recognized. This is one of Europe’s longest-running frozen conflict. It is also an obstacle to EU/NATO membership.

This region hosts mostly host Russians. But also, Ukrainians and Moldovans. A large majority there seeks to join Russia. The region is heavily backed by Russia. They have strong political, economic, and military ties. Russia subsidizes pensions, energy, and wages in the region. There are also up to 2000 Russian troops stationed there. Part of these troop is a peacekeeping force under the ceasefire deal. But the other part is illegally stationed. They guard a USSR-era ammo depot. It is Europe’s largest known ammo stockpile. Russia uses these elements to put pressure on Moldova and prevent its alignment with the West.

The war in Ukraine impacts Moldova. The country is one of the most exposed in Eastern Europe. First, it has seen a refugee flow coming from Ukraine. But mostly, it fears it might be next in line. Its internal division with a large pro-Russian region reminds that of Ukraine. Plus, Russian troops in Transnistria are already stationed at Moldova’s front door. It also faces pressure from Russia’s influence, disinformation and cyberattacks. Russia also threatens to disrupt Moldova if it moves toward the West.

In this context, Moldova needs to free from Russia. This comes with reducing its energy dependence. Moldova relied a lot on Russian gas. This gives Russia more leverage. In recent years, the state has been trying to buy more gas from Romania and EU markets. Plus, Moldova also needs to reduce Russia’s influence. Russia creeped in with media, church, and oligarchs to exert influence. Media run by oligarchs continue to spread disinformation. These mostly target the EU, Ukraine, NATO, and LGBT rights.

It also needs to push for further alliance with the EU and NATO to strengthen its capacities. Moldova has a fragile economy and a small army that lacks fund and training.

Comparison: Moldova vs. Ukraine  

Similarities. They were both part of the USSR. They host Russian speaking minorities and post-Soviet elites that make it hard for national reforms. Russia uses media, proxies, and economic levers in both countries. Russia’s influence and disinformation targets government and EU/NATO ties in both countries. Transnistria and Donbas/Crimea are both Russian-backed conflicts. Ukraine and Moldova are both candidates to the EU and seen as frontline states against Russia.

Key differences. There are still many factors that difference Moldova and Ukraine. Ukraine is a geostrategic centerpiece for Russia. It is a bordering state with large natural resources reserves.

Ukraine has local energy resources, even if much has been damaged. Moldova is still dependent on that matter.

Ukraine built a capable wartime army with a strong support from the West. Moldova remains neutral for now with a small army. It only receives non-lethal NATO support.

Finally, the main difference is that Transnistria is a frozen conflict with no large-scale fighting since the 90’s. In the meantime, Ukraine faces an active war. It has seen Russia’s invasion three years ago. But also, more than a decade ago, with the annexation of Crimea.

In the meantime, Russia is more likely to focus its war efforts on Ukraine. It will likely continue to put pressure and disrupt Moldova from afar. But the outcome of the war in Ukraine could design the future of Transnistria and Moldova.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy