Israel-Hamas: President Trump and the “Art of Deal”

For the past 20 months, the war has been raging in the Gaza Strip. Despite global outrage on the local living conditions and sufferings, past ceasefires failed. President Trump is now pushing for another 60-day ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Can this deal really bring peace in this area of the Middle East this time?

Reminder of the situation

In 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Israel. It led to more than 1 200 deaths and 250 hostages. In response, Israel pursued intense bombing campaigns and a ground invasion in Gaza.

This is the deadliest and most destructive episode of this conflict. Human losses and the scale of the humanitarian crisis have never been worse. Since the beginning of the war, more than 56 000 Palestinians and 1 700 Israelis died.  

The situation in the Gaza Strip is disastrous. Buildings are destroyed, bombings continue, and more than 90% of the population is displaced. Important infrastructures (roads, water systems, waste disposal) have collapsed and 84% of health facilities are destroyed.  This leads to a real sanitary risk.

There is also a food crisis. One third of the population suffer from severe malnutrition. Israel imposed a total aid blockade. This led to skyrocketing prices and almost famine.  The U.S.-Israel led GHF (Gaza Humanitarian Foundation) is the only supplier. But there are many controversies around it. Indeed, there have been many cases of violence by Israel’s forces at distribution points. Since May, more than 500 Palestinians were killed and 4 000 wounded while reaching aid sites run by GHF.

The war also weakened both Hamas and Hezbollah. Both their leadership and military capacities have been damaged. This was amplified by the regime change in Syria, cutting the logistic route with Iran. More recently, the war between Israel and Iran showed these groups and Iran cannot afford to rely on each other anymore.

It's in this context that President Trump pushed Israel and Hamas to conclude another deal. According to Trump, Israel has agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the deal. Hamas’ decision has not been heard yet. However, the U.S. president warned them that this would be the ultimate proposal.

What do we know about the terms of the ceasefire proposal?

The final proposal will be delivered by Qatar and Egypt.

The terms have not been fully publicly released yet. But the deal would involve:

• Hostage release: 10 alive and 18 deceased,

• Remaining hostages (estimated 50) would be released in case of a permanent ceasefire,

• More humanitarian aid to Gaza.

Hamas says it is ready for a deal but has several demands:

• Include the end of the war in the deal

• Withdrawal of Israel’s army from Gaza

• Insurance that Israel won’t strike again after the hostages have been released.

Israel refuses to end the war and withdraw its army. Israel’s PM only agrees to a pause and an exchange of hostages against prisoners. He also demands Hamas disarm.

What’s the deal’s real impact?

The last deal from January included 3 stages but did not pass the first one. In March, Israel’s strikes on Gaza resumed the war. They claimed that Hamas was ready to execute terror attacks and delayed hostage release.  

It is unlikely that this deal will succeed either. The terms are quite the same and there are no coercive measures to begin peace talks and stop the bombings. Hamas will probably refuse the deal if there are no guarantee after the hostages’ release.

Plus, the deal doesn’t involve the pre-existing ground for the conflict. There cannot be a durable peace if these matters are not addressed:

• Occupation of Palestinian territory and Israeli colonies,

• Creation of an independent Palestinian State,

• Shared control over Jerusalem,

• Access to Al-Aqsa Mosque,

• Dismantling of Hamas,

• Efficient Palestinian government,

• End of the blockade in Gaza,

• Refugees return,

• International guarantees.

Unless these issues are settled, there will be no peace and no superficial deal will change that. History has been repeating itself for years now. This ceasefire, if concluded, will end up like the others. These are just very short-term solutions that will bring so-called peace for few weeks before the next round.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy