Is the European Union ready to defend itself?

Geopolitical challenges

Europe faces a wide range of challenges. This shapes its security, economy, and global influence. It also changes the European approach to defense and energy.  

The biggest threat is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Eastern members like Poland and the Baltics fear that they could be next in line. They are bolstering defense. Other members support Ukraine by sending aid and weapons. Beyond the supply’s costs, the EU also faces energy troubles due to sanctions on Russia.

But the EU also faces hybrid warfare with Russia. There are some cyberattacks and influence campaigns by Russia. They target many European countries. Russia pursued intense campaigns in Africa to undercut France.  

The EU also deals with migration pressures. There are large amounts of refugees and immigrants willing to enter the union. Containing these waves of migration is tough for the countries in first line such as Italy. The migration flow mostly comes from the Middle East and Africa. It is fueled by:

• Conflicts,

• Climate crisis,

• Economic crisis,

• Poor conditions.

The EU also faces domestic threats. The risk of terrorist attacks and sleeper cells on European soil is still a major source of concern. There is also a rise of far right and populist parties in many European countries.

EU leaders also worry about the shift in U.S. commitment to Europe. Trump pressures Europe to spend more on its defense and take greater responsibility. This led to debate in the EU on how much the union can rely on the U.S. long-term. This has been amplified with the trade deal signed by Trump and the president of the EU commission. Indeed, many European leaders saw it as a setback for the EU. It all also revived the questions around a common European defense.

Status of European Defense

The Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) is the main frame. It aims to:

• Develop a culture of security and defense,

• Address conflicts and crisis as a union,

• Protect EU citizens,

• Strengthen peace.

In theory, this was supposed to lead to:

• Independence in military and security affairs,

• Reduced reliance on the U.S.,

• Coordination and integration of defense capabilities,

• Strengthening the EU’s role as a global security actor.

But the CSDP has stalled at the almost-theory level.

Indeed, there are different views on how far the union should go in terms of common defense.

There are diverging strategic cultures. France pushed for autonomy while Eastern states prefer NATO/U.S. backing. There are also issues in funding. Many countries still lag in defense investments.

Another issue is that the EU armies have different:

• Doctrines,

• Types of assets,

• Training.

The challenge will be to smooth that and increase interoperability. This could also be applied to defense companies. There is a competition between them in France, Germany, and Italy. A collective defense would require more cooperation within the industry. Plus, several EU countries prefer to buy American assets.

But there are more EU missions under the CSDP and defense projects. The CSDP has a committee, staff, and different agencies. It drives operations in Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe.  

This is encouraging but for now the EU is still highly dependent on NATO.

ReArm Europe Plan

“ReArm Europe” is a policy push across the EU and NATO states in response to rising threats. It aims at a rapid remilitarization, industrial ramp-up and shift toward strategic defense readiness. This plan includes key elements.

Increase in defense spending. Most EU countries now target 2% of GDP or more for defense. This is part of NATO guidelines. Poland even reached 4% this year. Germany made a historic shift with €100 billion special fund to its army.

Ramp-up of European arms production. EU countries should put big investments in ammo, missiles systems and vehicles production. Joint plants should produce shells, air defense and drones’ ammo.

Rebuilding military readiness. After years of war on terrorism, the EU rebuilds for interstate wars. This includes:

• Renewal of forces (more brigades, reservists),

• Increased logistics,

• Pre-positioning equipment on NATO’s eastern flank,

• Rapid reaction forces (5 000 troops deployment force planned).

Defense of crucial infrastructures. The goal is to protect key places from sabotage and cyberattacks. These include:

• Undersea cables,

• Pipelines,

• Energy,

• Transport.

Standardization and joint supplies. The goal is to create common defense systems. For now, projects include tanks and air defense. It also aims joint purchases of ammo and air defense to avoid internal competition.

There are still major challenges to overcome. Countries within the EU have different threat perceptions. This shapes their level of engagement to the common defense. Plus, there a question whether Europe can keep-up with these high spending long-term.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy