Iran’s Influence Operations

Cognitive warfare

Information always played a part in conflicts. For centuries, decoys and false information have been used to deceit the enemy. But this means is truer now than ever before. Mass media, social media, internet, and AI have become key battlefields. These advances in technology expanded the scope of these operations. So much that a term was given to it: cognitive warfare.

The goal is to influence the enemy’s decision-making. Not only with missiles and battles. But by targeting domestic and global populations’ minds and opinions. It aims to trigger public pressure on the enemy to end a conflict. Different means can be used to influence people:

• Create fear and uncertainty,

• Spread doubts,

• Humiliate,

• Disrupt daily life,

• Weaken public morale,

• Manipulate.

For a long time, Iran has integrated that in its hybrid warfare methods. And now that an open war broke out, we can see that Iran also fights in that sphere. It actively tries to shape narratives and perceptions.

Iran’s objectives

In Iran, the regime uses influence to protect itself. It controls internal narrative and discredit its opponents. It makes sure to present the U.S. and Israel as key threats for the country. It uses propaganda and repression to ensure people will see the West as the enemy. In the war context, it claims to be successful. The regimes, through state-controlled media, says it is resisting against two huge armies.

Abroad, the regime has two objectives. It aims to weaken its adversaries, mostly the U.S., Israel, and Europe. It exploits political divisions and sensitive subjects to weaken cohesion. It tries to influence elections. It seeks some people’s support by bringing up common concerns like Palestine. The goal is to create divisions. Today, the goal is also to influence audiences and push them to pressure their leaders to coerce an end to the war.

The regime also aims to build regional support. It does that, again, by spreading a narrative around common concerns like Palestine. It also highlights the fact that it is engaged in a resistance against the West. It presents itself as a bulwark to Western imperialism and hegemony. This is a way to gain support. But also, to increase the ranks of its proxies.

How are these operations conducted?

Like for other means of warfare, the regime acts a lot through proxies. Alongside its state-controlled influence teams and media, it relies on hacktivist groups. The regime and its allied actors use a wide range of methods. They are usually combined to provide maximum effects.

Online influence through social media. They use fake accounts pretending to be locals. They react on divisive subjects and blend into existing debates. They diffuse the regime’s narrative, like inflating the number of US soldiers killed in the war. They post memes and engage in troll campaigns. They also post emotional content, like the girls’ school hit by a missile or people hunting down the American air force pilot. Plus, the new trend now is AI-enhance influence. They use deepfakes to post false videos or image to manipulate the perceptions of a subject.

Cyber-enabled influence. The regime and its actors are known for their cyber operations. They used them a lot for espionage and sabotage purposes. But they also turn a lot to hack-and-leak methods. The goal is to reveal sensitive information to create public outrage. Methods include phishing, account compromise, and data theft. Targets are often government and military entities and individuals. But also, strategic public entities or businesses. These include different sectors:

• Energy

• IT

• Health services

• Media organizations

• Financial institutions

Why it matters for companies?

As said, many companies can be a target:

• If they work with a government perceived as adversary by Iran,

• If they operate in a strategic sector,

• If they are part of a crucial supply chain,

• If they operate in the media sphere.

Without knowing it, information could be highjacked to serve Iran’s interests. This is why it is crucial for private and public entities to put some measures in place. They must strengthen their defense against social engineering. Staff training, phishing simulation and simple reporting channels can be very useful. Humans are often involved in security breaches. Businesses must also harden identification and access control with strong passwords. These are simple measures that can be applied even with limited budget for cyber issues. But of course, it is preferable to provide full security to networks with advanced measures.

Finally, the regime’s influence operations can also harm markets. The latter can react to credible fake news, false information, or leaks. But also, to simple statements aimed at causing disruption.  

A peace agreement seems unlikely right now. But even if one was reached, Iran’s influence operations will not stop. As long as the regime, its proxies and state-linked actors are still in place, the threat on the West will go on.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy