High stakes behind Hungary’s elections

Yesterday, legislative elections were held in Hungary. Votes hit record numbers in polls, higher than any other elections before in the country. This election had very high stakes. Not only for Hungary, but also for the EU. Let’s see how the results change many geopolitical dynamics.

Results of the elections

After running Hungary for 16 years in a row as Prime Minister, Orban lost the elections. Peter Magyar and his party Tisza won a great majority. Magyar used to be part of Orban’s party Fidesz, before splitting. He campaigned with very different ideas.

He wants to reset relations with the EU and bolster Hungary’s position in the Union and NATO. He commits to joining the eurozone by 2030. On the other hand, he wants to end the close relations with Russia. He also aims to fight corruption and restore the rule of law in the country.

Magyar and his party now have a to third majority in parliament. Having this majority is a huge benefit. It is crucial to allow him to change the constitution and unravel key features of Orban’s era. Magyar will then be able to implement the reforms necessary to tackle internal problems. But also, to restore relations with the EU.

Outcomes for EU-Hungary relations

Magyar’s victory is a relief for the EU. The relations between Hungary under Orban and the Union more than cooled over the years. Hungary repeatedly vetoed, delayed, or did not comply with EU decisions. This happened on many subjects like stance towards Russia, migration, and budget agreements.

The EU also said Hungary was not complying with its obligations. Orban’s had a illiberal governance. It led to democratic backsliding with:

• Lack of media freedom,

• Lack of judiciary independence,

• Corruption,

• Rule of law violations.  

This has led the EU to freeze many funds members benefit from if they comply to the rule of law. The Financial Times valued these funds at 19 billion euros. Also, two third of the members of the European Parliament asked for the Article 7 procedure to be voted against Hungary. This is sometimes qualified as EU’s diplomatic nuclear weapon. The Council can suspend a member’s voting power if the latter does not comply to the rules. But this procedure never reached the final stage of decision.

Magyar’s victory will likely change this situation. To reset his country’s relations with the EU, he will have to make many reforms on the issues above. With a majority in parliament this task will be eased. It would then allow the EU to unlock the frozen funds and Hungary to benefit from them.

A blow to Orban’s partner

This pro-EU trajectory creates a loss for Orban’s partners. He was a symbolic leader of nationalism and illiberal movements in Europe. His loss weakens the network of far-right movements across the Union.

Orban also had ties with Trump’s administration. Rubio praised him during a visit in the U.S. and Vance backed him during a visit in Hungary before the elections. Trump also expressed his support on social media. The latter loses an ally in the EU at a time where relations are very tensed after the tariffs and Greenland episodes, and the lack of EU’s support in the Strait of Hormuz.

But the most impacted could be Russia. Orban’s Hungary was one of the most Russia-friendly leader in the EU. He has kept very close ties with Moscow through energy cooperation, opposing EU’s boycott. There was also a scandal around the state’s Foreign Ministry. He spoke with his Russian counterparts before and after EU summits. Hungary also followed an open non-support policy towards Ukraine.

Good news for Ukraine?

In fact, Orban’s and his party stood against some sanctions on Russia and aids to Ukraine. They vetoed a 90 billion euros loan for Ukraine. Orban often targeted Zelensky. He also accused Ukraine of sabotaging a key oil pipeline. He opposed Ukraine’s accession to the EU.

But is Magyar going to shift Hungary’s position on Ukraine? Most likely not. He is opposed to Ukraine’s accession. Plus, he often said he will not reverse the state’s current policy of non-support. He will probably pull away from Russia’s influence compared to Orban. But is plan’s timeline to reduce dependence on Russian energy still falls well behind the EU’s target. Energy security might prevail in that case.

What can we expect?

Magyar and his party winning the majority in Hungary marks a shift for the EU. But not a clean break. His position on Ukraine does not appear very different. Plus, his party opposes key EU measures. These include the Commission’s proposal for the next EU financial framework and the migration and asylum pact.

Magyar will likely navigate more subtly than Orban. He will probably make the reforms needed to unlock EU funds and restore ties. But he will also maintain Hungary’s position on sensitive subjects like migration and Ukraine. Plus, he will likely maintain good enough ties with Russia to ensure energy security. So, there sure will be changes. But this election will not completely change Hungary’s policies. Nor will it automatically resolve its tensions with the EU.  

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy