Geopolitics Of Water

Water was for a long time considered an unlimited resource. But the population growth and increased use of water changed that state of mind. Water is now a major source of concerns and conflicts.

A strategic resource

Water is the most crucial resource. There is only about 2.6% of freshwater available on a planet mostly covered by oceans. Most of it is trapped in glaciers, pack ice, and underground.

Nations depend on it for:

• Drinking,

• Food production,

• Sanitation,

• Hydropower,

• Industry.

About 70% of freshwater is used for agriculture. Indeed, water plays a vital role on food security and human health.

Increasing water stress

Water stress is the narrowing gap between available freshwater and the demand for it. Global demand for water is growing. The past century, the global use of water has been multiplied by seven. This is mostly due to population growth and increasing urbanization.

But the availability of freshwater resources is diminishing due to:

• Glacial melt,

• Shifting rainfall patterns,

• Prolonged droughts.

Mixed with the growing demand this create water stress. Water stress can lead to health issues and food insecurity. This could trigger social and political crisis. The population could turn against its government for not providing basic needs. Many could also flee their country. This would worsen migration issues.

Tensions and conflicts over water

The uneven breakdown of natural resources often shapes conflicts’ patterns. Water is no exception. Countries seek to control and exploit it. But some also use it as leverage.

The Euphrates and Tigris are two of the most important water sources in the Middle East. They are also sources of tensions between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. Turkey controls 98% of Euphrates’ flow and 45% of Tigris’ flow. The country also built dams that reduces the flow of water for Syria and Iraq. Turkey’s plan includes 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric plants.

There are also tensions between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Nile. It is one of the most contentious water issues in Africa. Ethiopia built the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). It is a massive hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nil near the border with Sudan. It aims to supply of electricity to its population and sell it to its neighbors. But the Blue Nil contributes to about 85% of the Nile River’s water that flows to Sudan and Egypt. They both fear the dam will reduce the Nile’s flow, mostly during the filling period of the reservoir. This could cause water shortages and harm agriculture. Egypt relies on the Nile for 90% of its freshwater needs. Talks on that issue continue to stall. Egypt suggests military force could be used in last resort.

Water is also a part of the Arab Israeli conflict. Israel’s need for water shaped its military strategy and foreign policy. It occupied Golan Heights from Syria and Southern Lebanon in the past partly to control water sources. It also stands against any use by Lebanon or Syria that would reduce its water flow. Syria still demands the return of the Golan Heights as part of any peace process. It is a key area that provides access to Banias River. Unlike India and Pakistan, there are no treaty governing water-sharing among them.

India and Pakistan share the Indus basin under the Indus Waters Treaty. This is a water-sharing deal cited as one of the most successful. It survived multiple wars and tensions. But there are still issues. Pakistan stands against its neighbor’s hydropower plan. India threatened to exit the treaty if terror attacks happened in India. Plus, the treaty dates to the 50’s. It is outdated and should include current realities like climate change and population growth.

China is trying to divert Tibet rivers to northern China. It is also trying to divert rivers in Central Asia to Xinjiang. It controls the headwaters of almost all major rivers in the region. But with its dam-building efforts and water diversion, it can now regulate the flow of rivers downstream.

Perspectives for the future

Wars. It is unlikely that full-scale wars will happen solely over water. But it could be a source of escalation in existing conflicts. The UN spotted over 300 places where conflicts could occur due to water. These disputes could trigger border conflicts and civil unrest.

Use of water as a weapon. Water could be used as pressure means by:

• Cutting off supplies,

• Dam diversions,

• Destructions to cause floods and water pollution.

It has already been the case in recent history. Israel counts on the lack of food and water in Gaza to influence the outcome of the conflict. Russia destroyed a dam in Ukraine that caused floods and damages. Iran accused Israel and the UAE to use cloud seeding to worsen droughts in Iran.

Mass migration could also result from water stress. The OECD states that in twenty-five years more than 40% of the world will live under water stress.

Desalination. There is a real need to develop solutions to face these issues. These include desalination. This is the process of removing salt from seawater. It then makes it safe for drinking and agriculture. Saudi Arabia and Israel heavily rely on that. It provides:

• Freshwater in dry regions,

• Can be adapted depending on needs,

• Reduces pressure on rivers.

But it also has disadvantages that could further impact the environment if not used correctly. This technique consumes a lot of energy. It worsens CO2 emissions if renewables are not used. It also creates salty wastewater that can harm marine life. Plus, it is expensive. Many low-income countries cannot afford it.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

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