Geopolitics of Iran

We have heard a lot about Iran in the news, whether on the nuclear talks or the recent strikes. Let’s dig into this Middle East state along the heavily strategic Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

A bit of history

Iran is one of the world’s oldest civilizations. Its history stretches back thousands of years to powerful empires. In the modern era, the state was ruled by the Pahlavi monarchy. In 1979, a revolution overthrew the monarch. The Islamic Republic of Iran was created. It was ruled by Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini. This event turned the state into a theocratic political system. It reshaped its foreign policy and domestic politics.

Iran is a 92 million people state. It has a long coast on the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz where about 20% of oil and LNG from the Gulf transits.

Economic situation

Iran’s energy sector is a key pillar to its economy and influence. It owns large reserves of oil and natural gas. But its economy is suffering. In cause: sanctions, structural weaknesses, and dependance on hydrocarbons. Indeed, the sanctions and embargoes lead to reduced foreign investments and export revenues. They also limit the access to global financial markets.

Iran faces high inflation, currency depreciation, unemployment, and declining purchasing power for households. The state tried to adapt by strengthening its ties with countries like China or Russia.

Rivalries and partnerships

The regime opposes the West. It faces very strong rivalries with Israel and the U.S. It wants complete destruction of Israel. Relations with the U.S. have been very hard since the hostage crisis in 1979. American diplomats and civilians were held hostage at the U.S. Embassy in Iran for more than a year. There is also rivalry with some Gulf states. Saudi Arabia and Iran are major competitors. They compete for political and religious influence in the region. Iran presenting itself as the main Shia power. Saudi Arabia leading the Sunnis.

Facing decades of sanctions and isolation, Iran has developed ties with Russia and China. Iran and Russia signed a treaty last year. It aims to strengthen cooperation in defense, energy, and technology. Iran also supported Russia’s war effort in Ukraine with drones. China is also a key partner. It buys large quantities of oil. It also invests in Iran to secure energy supplies and deepen economic ties.

The Axis of Resistance

To fulfill its goals, Iran seeks influence across the Middle East. It does so through alliances and proxies. This is often called the “Axis of Resistance”. The goals of the Axis are to counter U.S. and Israel’s influence. But it is also to maintain strategic depth beyond Iran’s border. Main partners include:

• Hezbollah in Lebanon,

• Shia militias in Iraq,

• Houthi movement in Yemen,

• Palestinian groups like Hamas.

Iran has been financing, training, and arming these groups. For a long time, this network has allowed Iran to project its power and act against its rivals without directly engaging the state into a conventional war. One of the goals of the U.S.-Israel’s strikes is to end Iran’s influence and support, and the Axis itself, once and for all.

Key issues

The nuclear program. This has been one of the key sources of tension with the West. It is also one of the main reasons for the US-Israel strikes. Iran is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. It can only use nuclear for civilian ends and not to develop a weapon. Iran claims its nuclear activities are intended only for peaceful purposes. But the U.S., Israel, and the EU fear it could develop a weapon. Iran was sanctioned after the discovery of undeclared sites. It also had levels of enriched uranium greater than what is needed for civilian use only. The issue led to the JCPOA in 2015. A plan in which Iran agreed to strict limits on enrichment and inspections in exchange of sanctions relief. The U.S. withdrew from this deal and Iran expanded its nuclear activities. It enriched uranium close to the level required for a weapon and increased its stockpiles.  

Missiles. This is a key pillar for Iran’s defense strategy and influence in the region. It has invested a lot in developing one of the largest missile arsenals in the Middle East. This program includes short, medium, and potentially longer-range ballistic missiles. These missiles are mostly a threat for U.S. bases in the Middle East, Israel, and Gulf states. Iran argues they are only defensive and intended to deter attacks. But the West and regional rivals fear they could be equipped with nuclear warheads. Plus, Iran has transferred missiles to allied proxies like Houthis and Hezbollah.

Domestic instability. Economic pressure and regime repression led to many waves of protests. For decades, people have marched over prices, jobs, corruption, and rights. But the protest cycle that began in 2022 changed the tone. It mixed social revolt with open rejection of the Islamic Republic. That year, protests had risen after the death of a young woman. She had been arrested over hijab violations. These protests united many groups: both women and men, students, workers, and parts of the urban middle class. Even people usually silent or aligned with the regime began going on strikes over economic pressure. But the protests have been repressed with arrests and deaths.

Domestic instability is likely to pursue even if the mullahs’ regime collapse. But it will be reshaped. The U.S. and Israel will likely try to settle a moderate new government. So, in that case there should be improvements on aspects like women and political rights. The economy might also improve if the sanctions are lifted. But there is still a pro-regime part of the population which will still seek revenge for the Guide’s death and the strikes. There will probably be some destabilization to expect from that branch.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

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