Can Lebanon disarm Hezbollah?

Reminder: what is Hezbollah?

Hezbollah was created in the 80’s. At the time Israel occupied the south of Lebanon. It is a powerful Shiite political and militant group based in Lebanon. It describes itself as a resistance movement against Israel. It is backed by Iran which is the group’s main funder and arms supplier.

Hezbollah plays many roles in the country. It is a political party with seats in Parliament. It also has a military force with an arsenal larger than Lebanon’s army. It is considered the most powerful non-state force in the world. It is also a social services provider. The group offers welfare, hospitals, and schools. This social side and its image as a defender against Israel bring supports.

The group is marked as a terrorist organization by the U.S., Israel, the Arab League, the UK, and others. For EU, only its military wing is terrorist.

A group in crisis

Despite its power, the group faces pressures and challenges.

Israel’s strikes hit the group’s military power and weapon stocks. But supplies have also been hindered by several factors.

Al-Assad’s Syria used to be an ally. The country served as a logistic route used to transit supplies from Iran to Lebanon. But the fall of the Al-Assad dynasty changed that. The al-Charaa government is not an ally. Hezbollah was then cut from its logistic route. This led to reduced supplies. Plus, the U.S. sanctions and the strikes in Iran further hurt its financing and supplies.

Lebanon’s economic fall also hurt the social services network. Plus, the explosion in the Beirut Port few years ago also damaged the group’s standing. The buildings in cause stored explosives that belonged to Hezbollah. It led to hundreds of deaths and thousands of injured. It also caused huge damages and left thousands of people homeless.

This probably led to the increased calls for disarmament.

What’s the plan?

Local government met with a U.S. envoy. They discussed a proposal that laid out the process to disarm Hezbollah. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will present a plan to have it implemented by the end of the year. This plan is backed by the U.S. It also includes Palestinian weapons in the country’s refugee camps.

In return, Israel will withdraw from the south of Lebanon and halt its attacks on the country. Lebanon will also benefit from more aid. A summit should be organized to boost its economy. It would gather France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. But this will only happen after the party is disarmed.

Hezbollah’s reaction

Hezbollah fiercely rejects the plan. It calls it a ploy from the U.S. and Israel that will only serve the latter’s interest. It also warns that a civil war could erupt if the disarmament is enforced.

Hezbollah does not close the door to discussions. But it says it will not surrender its arms until certain conditions are met. These include Israel’s withdrawal from south Lebanon and halt of airstrikes. Plus, Hezbollah require that LAF be fully able to defend the country.

What are the challenges?

Lack of means. The LAF suffers from severe shortages. The government cannot pay its soldiers enough. They earn less than $100 per week and must work part-time jobs. There is also a lack of local arms production and the costs on global markets does not allow the LAF to be properly equipped. All this also means that the army cannot be deployed for a long period. Lebanon is dependent on the U.S. and EU to cover these costs and on donations (ammo and replacement parts). It is then tough to disarm a force such as Hezbollah in these conditions. Plus, in case of success, there would have to be major investment in LAF to make it a solid national army.

There are talks on integrating Hezbollah’s command structure into the LAF. It would allow the state to acquire its military infrastructures, ammunitions, materials, and technologies. This would allow the LAF to improve its logistics and capabilities. But it is unlikely that the Hezbollah will surrender to that option.

Risk of civil war. A forced disarmament could lead to a civil war. Hezbollah and its supporters are likely to turn against the government. The LAF might have a hard time containing such an escalation. In fact, Lebanon has no national consensus on how to deal with Hezbollah. Some political leaders fear that it could cause a sectarian conflict. Plus, Israel will most likely get further involved.

Iran’s reaction. Hezbollah is Iran’s most important regional proxy. It uses the group to project power. It is also a key player against Israel. Even weakened by the U.S. and Israel’s strikes, it is unlikely that Iran will allow its most strategic asset to be neutralized.

No compromise, no progress. Hezbollah requires that Israel withdraw from the country and halts airstrikes before disarming. But Israel says it will meet its part of the deal if Hezbollah is disarmed. It is most likely that discussions will just turn in circles without any compromise being found. Plus, LAF would need more foreign aid to implement the plan. But this extra foreign aid is conditioned to the disarmament.

UN Peacekeepers leaving in 2026. The mandate of UN peacekeepers in south Lebanon will end at the end of next year. The vote came after pressures from Israel and the U.S. There will be no buffer between Hezbollah and Israel or between Hezbollah and the LAF. Tensions might escalate even more quickly. 

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

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