Belarus and North Korea relations

Belarus’ president paid a maiden visit to North Korea this month. This visit aimed to identify key areas of mutual interests. They signed a friendship and cooperation treaty. Plus, they agreed to cooperate in an array of fields, from agriculture to information exchanges. Both leaders said they could sign up to 10 deals in the near future. They also declared it is time for them to step up their relations in this new era. Both sanctioned, allied with Russia and China, they are now trying to enhance their own partnership. Let’s learn a bit more on their relations.

Historical background

Belarus was part of the USSR. During the Cold War, it interacted with North Korea. But only through the Soviet diplomatic and military channels. Both states created diplomatic relations after the collapse of the USSR. Until now, their relations were at a low intensity. Each state relied more on key partners such as Russia or China. But there were always cordial diplomatic ties. Belarus often avoided to condemn North Korea in global forums.

Similar regimes

Both states are quite alike in their functioning. They have strong centralized power structures. Leaders have been in power for many years without alternance. Lukashenko has been running Belarus since 1994. The Kim family has been ruling North Korea since 1948.

Opposition is mostly inexistent. Opponents often face prison, at the best, or worse. They both keep state-controlled media. Belarus cracks down on people who disagree with its leaders. North Korea is accused of human rights violations. These include torture, killings, prison camps, and forced labor. Freedom of movement and expression is at its lowest.

They also support the principle of state sovereignty and non-interference. Plus, they have tense relations with the EU and U.S, although sometimes eased a bit under Trump. Both states face sanctions. Belarus for supporting Russia in the Ukraine war. North Korea because of its nuclear and missile programs. They stand against these sanctions measures and the pressure exerted by the West.

Limited economic relations

Trade between the two states is very small. This is mostly due to sanctions. But also, to limited complementary economies. Past exchanges included:

• Machinery

• Industrial goods

• Technical cooperation

• Educational exchanges

Areas for growth include Belarus exporting pharmaceuticals and food to North Korea. But any future trade would likely be discreet and indirect. It will rely on intermediaries. Or on integration into Russia’s trade networks. But with the sanctions, they both share a common interest. They need to develop economic resilience mechanisms to lower isolation. But any trade between them will remain marginal compared to their other partnerships.

Supporters of Russia

They both have close ties with Russia. They backed the latter in the war in Ukraine. Belarus served as a launchpad for the invasion. Russia also stationed tactical nuclear weapons there. North Korea sent thousands of soldiers. But also, artillery shells, missiles, and rocket systems. Russia and North Korea signed a strategic partnership two years ago. Both sides must provide military and other assistance if the other is attacked. In return, North Korea receives financial aid, military technology, food, and energy supplies from Russia.

Prospective for this stepped up relation

The extent of these renewed ties will likely depend on how the global opposition we see grows. There is a growing informal bloc of sanctioned states standing against the West. Both Belarus and North Korea face isolation and sanctions.

These states could deepen ties in areas that avoid direct sanctions. This includes:

• Technical exchanges,

• Education,

• Cyber,

• Limited industrial trade.

They could use intermediary networks to do that. Indeed, this could happen through their common strategic partner Russia. Russia pursues a network strategy.  Since the war in Ukraine, it grows parallel economic and military supply networks among friendly states.

Both regimes can also increase symbolic diplomatic support for each other in global forums. This would reinforce their narratives of resistance against the West and the pressure it exerts.

But some limits suggest the partnership will likely be more opportunistic than strategic. These limits include distance and the lack of economic complementarity. But also, North Korea’s priority focus on relations with China and Russia. Unless a broader anti-sanctions economic system grows in Eurasia.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy