AUKUS Strategic Partnership: Will Australia ever get its submarines?

What is it?

AUKUS is a security alliance between:

• The U.S.,

• U.K.,

• Australia.

It aims to increase military and tech ties among these nations. But there is no mutual defense clause. The three nations rely on NATO for that. Compared to NATO, AUKUS is more a tech-sharing pact. It is designed to boost specific skills and systems for a specific region.

Geopolitical purpose

AUKUS is a response to growing worries in the Indo-Pacific. It is part of a broader effort to counter China’s influence and power.

China builds up its miliary in the South China Sea. It also makes aggressive territory claims. AUKUS wants to deter China from making moves on Taiwan and critical sea lanes.

Plus, it is part of the U.S. strategic shift toward the region. It reinforces the U.S. and U.K. presence. It also allows Australia to play a bigger role in regional defense.

AUKUS is part of the broader shift from counterterrorism to great power competition.

Key component

There are two main pillars to this alliance.

Pillar 1

The plan is to help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines. This will enhance its naval capabilities with stealthier long-range assets. They will not be armed with nuclear weapons. But with this technology they will be able to stay submerged longer to avoid detection.

The U.S. should build 3 to 5 submarines and deliver them by 2032. In exchange, Canberra should invest $3 billion in U.S. submarines industry. The country also authorizes the use of its Stirling naval base by American and British vessels.

Pillar 2

AUKUS also covers cooperation in other defense and high-tech areas.

AI. The aim is to develop AI-enabled military systems such as autonomous vehicles and decision-making support tools.

Quantum technologies. The aim is to secure communication with the use of quantum encryption. Plus, to develop the use of quantum for undersea and space navigation. These are methods to encrypt and transmit secure data based on the natural laws of quantum mechanics.  

Cyber capabilities. The aim is to boost joint cyber defense and offensive capabilities. It is also to further share tools and intelligence to counter threats.  

Undersea capabilities. The aim is to develop uncrewed undersea vehicles, sonars, mine detection, and surveillance systems.

Hypersonic and counter hypersonic. The aim is to develop hypersonic missiles and systems to detect and counter them. This is a response to China and Russia’s advances in the domain.

Electronic warfare. The aim is to develop tools for jamming, spoofing and systems’ protection.

Innovation and information sharing. The aim is to create joint test sites and development labs. Plus, the goals is to boost joint effort between defense industries, startups, and universities.

Defense industry integration. The aim is to ease defense trade between partners. It is also to create a more unified complex.

Other countries might join in for a partnership on Pillar 2. These countries include Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, and Canada.

Diplomatic fallout

The launch of AUKUS led to tensions with France. Indeed, a big contract was then cancelled between France and Australia. Australia had signed a submarine contract with the French defense contractor Naval Group worth US $90 billion.

China sees AUKUS as a taunt and says it is a cold-war mentality. This could trigger an arms race in the region.

Will the alliance change with Trump?

Late June, the U.S. said AUKUS will be reviewed. They must see if it aligns with the “America first” guideline.  

This led to worries in Australia. People are not sure if the U.S. will deliver the submarines and respect its commitments. They fear the U.S. can’t build enough submarines to meet their own defense demands plus AUKUS. If Trump decides it undermines national supply, he could step back. In fact, there are no terms that bind the U.S. to deliver them or reimburse Australia.  

But if the U.S. backed away China and others would notice. It would alter the U.S. credibility and Australia’s role in the region. This could be used against the U.S. in influence maneuvers. They would put a light on the unreliable U.S. commitments. Plus, AUKUS has already been reexamined when governments changed in Australia and the U.K. It did not affect the partnership. There are beliefs that this is just a normal process for new governments.  

Trump’s administration still put pressure on Canberra to raise its defense budget and commit more. It asked to increase its military expenses from 2% to 3.5% of its GDP. It also asked for commitment to back the U.S. if war broke with China over Taiwan. There seem to be doubts in the U.S. as to whether Australia would engage in a conflict. The U.S. then might decide to delay the delivery until these conditions are met.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy