Arctic: Geostrategic Stakes Behind Polar Ice.

Climate change and natural resources. These are two main reasons for the fierce competition going on over the Arctic region. Melting ice due to global warming is opening new potential trade routes. The Arctic soil is also rich of unexploited resources. Of course, this leads to competition for power and influence in the region. Let’s see the stakes and challenges offered by this rich but hostile region.

Economic opportunities

Natural resources:

Melting ice opens access to oil, gas, and minerals. About 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of its gas lie in the Arctic. Minerals include coal, iron ore, zinc, lead, copper, nickel, precious metals, diamond, and gemstones. They can be found in Northern Canada, Siberia, and Greenland. Estimates suggest a total value up to 3 billion USD.

Greenland owns the world’s second largest rare-earth elements (REE) reserves. This resource is much envied by the U.S. and EU. They are trying to diversify and reduce their dependency on China. Indeed, China currently dominates the REE market. They account for 70% of the world’s REE production. These REE are used in new technologies, energy, and defense. They are very strategic for supply chains and China uses them as leverage.  

But Arctic resources are very hard to reach. They imply huge amounts of money for research and mining, high-risk conditions, and concerns for nature.  

Strategic shipping routes:

The Northern Sea Route sails along Russia while the Northwest passage sails along Canada. They are becoming more and more navigable due to melting ice. These routes reduce travel between Europe and Asia, hence their value. Indeed, the route going through the Suez Canal is almost 20 000 kilometers long. But passing through the Bering Strait would save about 5 000 kilometers.

These routes would reduce delivery time and costs. They would also be more secure. Commercial ships could avoid passing in dangerous areas where they risk being attacked by pirates and terrorists. Indeed, passing through the Suez Canal requires crossing the Gulf of Aden and the Mandeb Strait. These are places where Somalian pirate and Houthis act.

Currently, about 50 ships transit by the Bering Strait and 80 000 by the Malacca Strait. The ratio is about 34 tons versus more than a billion.

Geopolitical competition

All states bordering the Arctic have sovereignty over land, inland waters, and territorial seas. Their exclusive economic zones (ZEE) are 200 nautical miles. According to the law, countries can make a clam to extend their ZEE to 350 nautical miles. In the region, this causes issues over territorial seas. Several disagreements exist on overlapping claims. These include:

- Lomonosov Ridge: Russia vs Canada vs Denmark,

- Beaufort Sea: US vs Canada,

- Hans Island: Canada vs Denmark.

Russia even planted a flag at the North Pole seabed.

The area is rich in resources, so every bordering country is trying to push its ZEE further.

China wants an Arctic version of its Silk Roads project. It is trying to secure its energy supply and gain a long-term influence in the region. Beijing counts on being a key player when Arctic states will take their share of the advantages. That’s why China defines itself as an “almost-Arctic State” even though it is 1500 km away from the area.

China and Russia jointly develop Northern sailing routes. Russia is also helping China develop its nuclear icebreakers.

The U.S. and E.U. are also trying to gain access to the Arctic. They are interested in its natural resources. Both are trying to reduce their dependency on China for REE. The E.U. also needs to diversify its oil and gas supply, to avoid dependency on Russia. Plus, Greenland being part of Denmark, it has been part of the E.U. since 1973.

Why are great powers so interested in Greenland?

Greenland is a part of Denmark. It has a large autonomy on various issues. But Denmark still handles foreign affairs and defense.

Greenland is as a key geopolitical hotspot due to its strategic location and its natural resources. It offers access to the Northwest passage, air routes and potential shipping lanes. Its soil is also full of resources. These include:

• Minerals: REE, uranium, zinc, iron ore, copper, lead,

• Oil and gas: potential offshore reserves,

• Freshwater: 85% of it is covered by glaciers. Available freshwater resources on Earth are 30% in groundwaters and 70% in glaciers. Greenland owns about 10% of the world’s freshwater reserves.

For these reasons, the U.S. show great interest in Greenland. They operate the Thule Air Base in Northern Greenland. This base is part of U.S. Space Force and key to American missile defense and early warning systems.

President Trump wanted to buy Greenland since its first time in office. Reasons for that include:

• Greenland’s strategic value and resources,

• Reducing dependence on Chinese REE,

• Maintain Thule Air Base and deploy U.S. naval and Coast Guard presence in Arctic waters,

• Strategic competition with Russia and China.

China also has interests in Greenland, which include:

• Mining: securing its energy supply and maintaining its near monopoly on REE,

• Infrastructure investment: make an Arctic version of the Silk Roads,

• Influence: ensure it is a key player with the U.S. and Russia.

But many investments in airports and mining projects were blocked by Denmark, influenced by the U.S.

The Arctic Council

By the end of the 90’s, the Arctic Council was founded. Its goal is to promote peace, stability, and development in the region. It focuses on:

• Environmental protection,

• Scientific research,

• Indigenous rights.

Military issues are not discussed by the Council. It actually has no real power. Indeed, the Arctic Council Is consensus-based and has no legal authority.

Social and environmental challenges

About 4 million people live in the Arctic. About 500 000 of them are Indigens. These communities want to protect their lands and traditions. They value nature and seek harmony with it instead of destruction. They do not hesitate to protest in structures like the Arctic Council. In Greenland, officials even stopped some mining projects to protect nature. Projects going against their values could face oppositions.

Climate change is already hurting the region. It leads to habitat loss and rising sea levels due to ice melting. Global warming is four times steeper in the Arctic than elsewhere on the planet. In 40 years, pack ice lost about 40% of its surface. In the next ten years, ice could even totally disappear during summer months. Few decades ago, sailing in the Bering Strait was impossible half of the year due to pack ice. Now, it is regularly sailable even in winter.

Exploiting resources and increasing shipping will only make things worse. There is a need to balance resource development with nature protection. But most countries competing for power there aren’t very sensitive to these issues.

There is also an issue to consider. The Arctic is a very hostile region. Sailing is dangerous due to shallow waters and icebergs. Weather conditions are harsh with cold, fog and violent winds.

Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival.

Joy